ITB projects high growth for global automotive natural refrigerant thermal systems from 2026 to 2034. ITB estimates the CAGR (Cumulative Annual Growth Rate) of light-duty vehicle thermal systems using R744 (CO2) refrigerant will be nearly 50%, and over 100% CAGR for R290 (Propane). This does not mean fluorinated refrigerants go away, the share of light vehicles using fluorinated refrigerants in 2034 is projected to be over 45%.
Natural refrigerant usage depends on regulations in different regions, different powertrain thermal system designs, and OEM choices. Automakers must determine how to smoothly make the transition to natural refrigerants, and remain flexible given the uncertainties in regulations, development and approvals. Secondary loop R290 thermal system architectures present new challenges but offer the possibility of low-cost systems and compatibility with existing and future supply chains. As shown below, refrigerant usage can vary greatly across OEMs, powertrain types and over time. ITB expects a marked shift in refrigerant usage around 2030, primarily due to changing (proposed) regulations in Europe (universal PFAS restrictions) and China (low GWP gas transition).
The shift toward natural refrigerants is well under way behind the scenes but will take more than a decade. ITB’s latest research examines regulatory drivers, supply chain readiness, and value fundamentals (such as cost and mass), to project how this natural refrigerant transition will play out. ITB’s interviews from throughout the global supply chain and impact assessment explain the actions being taken underlying the natural refrigerant transition.
Examples of Refrigerant Mix by OEM for ITB’s Projected Global Market Model
Future vehicle thermal system architectures are the focus of ITB’s latest research report which was published in January 2025. The assessment helps companies plan their thermal system transition path by examining sources of value, supply chain dynamics, and production volumes for a shift to natural refrigerants across global regions.
ITB provides insights into changing vehicle regulations, technologies, and markets
ITB’s industry funded research helps companies understand the choices being made to improve vehicles over the next ten years. ITB gathers input from throughout the automotive value chain regarding unmet needs and innovations that improve system value. ITB’s vehicle efficiency, battery, and thermal management research dives deeply into markets, designs, and materials, including effects on vehicle cost and performance.
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