Report Inquiry - Global Development of Natural Refrigerant Thermal Systems for Passenger Vehicles 2025

R290 vs. R744 Fluorinated Refrigerant and Coolant Systems for ICE, HEV, PHEV, EREV, and BEV Applications

Published January 2025

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The Importance of ITB’s Automotive Natural Refrigerant Report

Natural refrigerants are an important step toward future sustainability of automotive and non-automotive refrigerant systems. The ITB Group projects high growth for global automotive natural refrigerant thermal systems from 2026 to 2034. The CAGR of light-duty vehicle thermal systems using R744 (CO ) refrigerant will be nearly 50%, and for R290 (propane) over 100% CAGR. As shown in the graphic below, refrigerant usage will vary greatly across OEMs and over time. A marked shift in refrigerant usage is expected around 2030, primarily due to changing proposed regulations in Europe and China. Natural refrigerant system usage depends on regulations in different regions, different powertrain thermal system designs, and OEM choices. Automakers must determine how to smoothly make a transition to natural refrigerants, and remain flexible given the uncertainties in regulations, development and approvals.

Approach:

ITB not only investigated regulatory changes but other business incentives and impacts such as the financial and legal risk of using PFAS/TFA-related fluids, and fundamental economics of refrigerant system designs. For example, the report explains how a compact secondary loop design can be less costly and have better performance than current thermal systems for key powertrain types. The report focuses on automotive developments but also examines wider non-automotive natural refrigerant developments and projections which may influence automotive commercialization rates.

Key Deliverables

• Global natural refrigerant market volume projections based on interviews, economics, and developmental maturity
• A validated refrigerant system cost/mass model including component, module, and refrigerant cost. The model includes key design variants differentiating cost/mass for different powertrain types

• Segmented natural refrigerant systems market by powertrain, OEM, and region
• Natural refrigerant transition strategies and their influence on OEM and regional choices
• Examination of the competitive product landscape: Leading OEMs making significant investments, plus key developments for increased R744 and R290 system vehicle volumes