As of the summer of 2022, the automotive world is continuing to experience more than a mere rough patch. War, supply chain, the risk of recessions, and climate create operational issues on a weekly basis. In this environment, the long-promised forecasting scenario in which global vehicle production surpasses projected volumes of one hundred million is no longer “just around the corner”. These variables create lasting effects on OEM powertrain electrification targets, which, depending on the car company, range from highly specific to vague, with different approaches to goal setting expressed in differing measurements (percentages, volumes, plug-in vs. BEV, ICE phase out dates). Since the industry now follows BEV powertrains with tremendous interest there is nevertheless great variance in forecasting. Because the leading edge of cabin design is heavily tied to upcoming BEV launches, ITB has developed a forecast for BEV and other powertrains, after reviewing aspirational goals of the OEMs and tempering these with practicality.
Not surprisingly, today’s volume OEMs intend to become the BEV volume leaders in 2030, and quantifiable targets from Hyundai, Toyota, Stellantis and Tesla range from the tangible to fantastic, as follows:
- Hyundai vows to produce 1.87 million BEVs in 2030
- Toyota recently raised its 2030 BEV target from 2.0 million to 3.5 million vehicles
- Stellantis’ aggregated target for its now-numerous brands is to make five million BEVs by 2030
- Porsche explains that by 2030 over 80 percent will be fully or partially electrified
- The Renault Group’s Renault brand is preparing to reach up to 100% pure electric vehicles sales in 2030 for passenger cars
- Tesla aspires to grow to “extreme scale” and manufacture 20 million BEVs per year according to its strategic plan!
Other OEMs such as GM, Honda, and others are less forthcoming on electrification, as follows:
- GM and Honda are launching “millions” of low-cost crossovers around 2027
- BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Renault, and Nissan do not have volume-based targets. Mercedes-Benz, for example is “preparing to be fully electric by 2030, wherever market conditions allow.”
- Several OEMs (Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai) maintain that in the 2030’s they will continue to sell ICE-powered vehicles in emerging markets
In the current wartime environment, petroleum shortages should be accelerating consumer interest in BEV’s, however Europe is now entering a period of stress in potential electricity supply, with unimaginable price jumps heading into winter. In July 2022, the German future power cost estimate for the next year, the European benchmark, rose to a record 345.55 euros ($351.41) per megawatt-hour, having reached a previous record of 233.5 euros in May 2022These are the highest recorded figures since a previous all-time high in December 2021 recorded on the European Energy Exchange AG. Voices from Germany, such as the Finance Minister Christian Lindner representing the Free Democrats, are starting to push back on the European Union frameworks, rejecting the proposed 2035 ban on ICE vehicles, setting a tone which may be followed by other countries. Whereas Mercedes-Benz signaled that it considers the European Union’s plan to enforce a 100 percent reduction in passenger-car CO2 emissions by 2035 to be achievable
On a best effort basis, ITB has reviewed electrification plans of German, Japanese, U.S., and other OEM groups, and have developed ITB’s own projection for vehicle electrification based on these signals. ITB’s customers are developing solution sets that will be applied to advanced interiors in electric vehicles as their volume increases.
Contact The ITB Group to gain insights and construct strategies for solution development and commercialization.
Picture Source: Creative Commons
